TF Daily Level.. 814.50

March 28th. 2011

Looking at the TF daily chart we are at a important level. If the daily candle tunrs red and we close below 814.50 that would be a trigger for us to enter a swing trade short with the stop above Fridays high.

The stop would be about 15 points with the 1st target at 793.00 and the 2nd target at 733.00.

The trigger is if the daily chart Kill Zone turns to red. The patter entry is if it breaks the 814.5 low you are triggered into the trade.

Another way to play this is IWM puts or UWM puts with a stop above Fridays high.

Tomorrow we should have a big move up or down. If we do break the low of today in the morning I would be careful on any scalp or day trades to the long side.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

Almost there??

March 25th. 2011

We have been saying for a few days that the market is at a very important price level in this correction. It is more than just looking at a Fib retrace and shorting the 50% anyone and everyone does this.

It is looking at the NQ, ES, TF and YM to see which one is "In play" or when they all get to a point that it would make sense to have a move down.

If you look at the charts you can see the YM and TF have retraced much more than the NQ and ES. We have our opinions about why this is happening but I do not want to get side tracked on this post.

There is another element of the market that is important which is the time element. Have you ever picked the top in the correction lets say right at the 50% to go short and you enter short but the price hangs up at the 50% for hours before the move to the downside actually starts?..

Why does that happen? It is because the time element still needs to complete before the move happens. I agree the price is the price with no bearing of time but WHY the price starts and stops at certain levels is also very important.

Lets look at the 30 min TF chart and I will show you something that might be new to you or maybe you are already a pro?

Side note: We are big into Fib price levels. We use Fib retrace, extend, reverse and extend inside levels.

ppb stands for points per bar. From the low to high the average points per bar is 0.1616 which is very close to 1618 which is a extension fib 1.618

tf stands for time retrace which the number is 6.1873 which is .618 retrace

There have been 370 bars up in 10.29 days. This chart is 24 hour data if you go to a normal session chart there is 109 bars up which is very close to 110. So we would have 110 bars up in 10.2 days. That is very close to the same.

The TF has gone up 59.8 points.

If you take 10.29 and divide 370 you will get .027 which is 27% which is very important with timing.

Also take 370 and divide 59.8 and you will get 6.18 (.618 again!)

This is just the TF chart the ES and YM also have some very wild numbers at the high that was put in today.

What does this all mean? It could mean nothing or it could mean everything meaning; if we go down from the high that was formed today it could be a big move down at least to the 730 level.

I would have stops in on all of my long positions.

If we break higher the chances of making a new high is very strong. Not just a new high but we would have a fairly big move to the upside. This timing is only on a 30 minute chart so it is not as strong as a daily or weekly chart.

Until the market opens we cannot say for sure which way the big move will be but know that a big move is very close to happening in the markets.

The thing that is important is we are having the price and time come into play at a very important level on the bigger charts. Every big move starts small and builds into something bigger so the point is if we fail to take out the high we made today on Monday then we could be starting something bigger to the downside. Of course we will have to wait and see but we will always position ourselves for these moves. We do a nightly video each night for all of our members.

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If you have questions please email us at trade@eminischool.com

Be ready for Monday!

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

**** The free offers expire Monday March 28th at the open of the market.

Spike after hours

March 24th 2011

The market spiked up after hours. There is timing in this zone on multiple indexes for a timing high. We are also at price resistance.

We had 2320-2334 for our NQ upper zone and we hit 2335 after hours and have backed down to the 2316 after that high.

We cannot say for sure this is the top but we do know we are very close to something major happening.

We have IWM puts and NFLX puts going into tonight.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

PS. Price usually spikes UP into timing resistance...

Is this the top?

March 24th, 2011

This is the area to watch for the bullish pattern failure. We have timing today into Saturday for a top. Timing is tricky but when price levels like this fall on timing points the move can be explosive.

We are right at a very important price decision point.

Our outlook from last night was early morning strength then a reversal back down so we would be careful on long trades.

There is one more number higher on the TF and that is 824. If we break higher watch for the 824 to have big resistance.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

Bigger Picture Update #3

March 22, 2011

In our last update over the weekend we said that our level we were watching for was the 1300. We did not have this number just because it is the whole number it is a very important zone to watch for that could terminate the current pattern.

As long as the 1310 level is not taken out we are going to the 1230-1220 area. If this new leg starts we will be able to pinpoint the low within a few points.

A new high is not out of the question from this level. If the market trades down to the 1270 and finds support we could be at a new high very quickly. I think the odds here are still good for both scenarios and this is why we break it down to intra day chart to give us the "If this happens do this" instead of having only one outlook that could be wrong.

We play each leg as it comes and as the leg develops we get better odds on the next leg meaning; on this blog we do not do intra day updates so we are only giving the bigger levels to watch for but we have rules and guidelines of what we look for intra day and we teach this in our course plus give intra day updates through our instant messenger.

You can see on this chart there were some nice sell signals down to the 1250 low. This is a 60 min chart so there will be more color changes. The daily chart is red right now so what that means is the odds of breaking down to the 1230 level does have higher odds.

Tomorrow should be a big day so days like tomorrow are where you should have clear levels to watch for and a clear trading plan. Even though there is more opportunity the majority of people lose on big range days. Watch the 1270 and if that level holds we could make another move up to 1310 and if the 1270 is broken to the downside we would not try to go long and pick the bottom of the day.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

Big Picture Update #2

March 19th, 2011

For the market to have healthy waves we need the market to correct. A correction in a bullish trend is a bullish pattern even though the price is going down. As long as the price is contained in the support zones it is normal and healthy for the market to go down in up-trends. This is why we teach to buy in the correction because in doing this you will get the most profit opportunity back to the new high.

When you are looking at a daily chart and the price is going up by nature we want to do the opposite which is short. Most people short to soon because they miss the entry to go long so they are stuck flat and since they missed the long the only thing to do is try to pick the top and go short. We need these people to go short to soon so they have to cover their shorts to push the market higher. When the price is going higher it is not just because people are buying as a bullish bet it is also people buying to cover their bearish bets that were placed too soon.

*New bullish legs are almost always started with a short squeeze.

Take for example the Nov 2010 correction. Everyone was saying that the 1227 high was going to be the high for many years. The result of what happened was only a bullish correction of the 1227 high. The pullback to the 1175 was bullish even though the price was going down.

Where is the short squeeze? See how we made a high at the 1200 on 11/18/2010 and went down from that level? From the low it made on 11/29/2011 the price went back up and broke the 1200 and you can see how out of all the bars in the correction the one that went up to break the 1200 was the biggest bar. It is much bigger than the bars coming down off the 1227 high isn’t it? It was that bar that broke the 1200 level that short squeezed to start the new leg up for 150 points.

*This also happened on 2/11/2011

You might look at this chart and say that this is obvious but in real-time you need to know what to look for as the corrections are building from one leg to the next so you have odds for the next big move.

It is important to go up a time frame and maybe even two time frames to get the bigger picture. In doing this we are expanding our views so we can get better odds of what is going on around us. Too often we talk to traders and they are doing this the opposite way and trying to go down time frames because they think the risk is smaller on the smaller time frames. In reality the risk is smaller but your odds of getting stopped are much higher. The end result of that is most traders take small losses but they talk a LOT of them to result in the same overall loss they would have no matter which time frame they are trading.

**Do not try to manipulate the market for what you want. The market knows when you try to do that and will stop you out every time even if you are right on the bigger move. It is important to really acknowledge that you are just a participant in something that is much larger than you or me**.

When I go to the bigger time frames I see that this high on the daily does have reasons for making a bigger correction. We noted this on this blog on Feb 25^th 2011 called the “Big Picture Update”. We noted that the NQ made a top at a inside retrace level. Most people do not look at inside retracements on the extension tool but they are a great way to see a top early when the market is extended like it has been for a few months.

In that post we were saying the top needs to be confirmed and you might think that it should have already been confirmed as far as time meaning; it has been three weeks so in time it should be confirmed but it has not been confirmed. Confirming tops takes time for us to really say it is in for sure.

The top was definitely something to be aware of and that is why we did the post but it does not mean you just short the level and walk away. It is more a level to place tight stops on your longs which we also said. The market does not go from bullish to bearish in one or two bars. It makes a turn with multiple bars that end up becoming patterns on the chart and patterns is what gives you odds.

We are not here to convince you that patterns are valuable if you still think that all you needs is a MACD and RSI you might not even absorb what we are trying to say here today. The point is patterns either completes and the trend is back in play or they break and the start of a new direction begins.

**It is the bullish pattern that fails is what starts the new down trend.

Where we closed Friday is a buy level which means we are still in a bullish pattern. If the SPX fails at the 1313 area then we might have a bullish pattern than failed to start something to the downside. It is important to know that we could go a little lower next week in the leg we are still in but once we make this low it is the next two legs that you need to really watch out for and be ready to act if you are still 100% long this market.

Could we go up and break the 1344 high? Yes , we still can and if Monday we get a confirmation of this low it is a buy at least up to the 1300 area. The market will be emotional in the 1300 level just like it has been the last two weeks. You can see the emotion by looking at a 60 minute chart. There are big gaps almost every day and gaps are high emotions so you have to be careful at these levels if you are making longer term trades. Where the market is now you are better off day trading or taking your longer term position with options until it becomes clearer of the next week.

We teach everything in this article in our course. We have nightly videos that you can go back and watch how we played that 1200 breakout level and how we are playing it right now.

** If this high holds and we roll over we are looking for the 1160.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

Blue Bars Highs and Lows!

March 2nd , 2011

Today the market had some nice moves. The VIX is finally starting to make a move which is giving us bigger ranges intraday. This is the market condition you can hit daily goals faster and easier if you know what to look for and have real-time confirmations on your charts.

Today we had blue bars ant the high of the day and at the low of the day. When we get blue bars are rules say to trail the stop to the last blue bar and let the market take you out of the trade. In doing that we are still in if the bigger move kicks in from the lows and if it does not we are out with our profits.

It is important to always look at a chart as if you were in the trade meaning; if you missed the short down to the 803 once the blue bars come in you would not be thinking to enter a short there because if you were short you would be exiting your trade.

Having this real time confirmations gives you odds of the next wave being up or down and you can see from the chart they were really good odds at the high and the low of today.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

+19 points on NQ Short

March 1st, 2011

From last night we were looking for shorts for today. We had 4 positions short with puts as well. Today we had a nice sell signal on the NQ. The lower target for this trade was 2313.00. I closed the trade at 2327 because I had to step out for a hour during the day. Our members got this trade live and most of them made more points then I did on this trade.

The pattern was perfect and then we wait for the sell level of the pattern to be hit and the bar to go red.

Notice how our charts are very clean and simple.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com