ES Monthly Targets

4/17/2010
Since the march lows last year we have had the 1230 are as our upper target for this move in the markets. Did we think we would be up this high this fast? NO, but nevertheless we have played it long since that low and even when the market seems like it is getting extended to the high side it is important to stick with the symmetry and if it has not been broken to the downside stay long even though it is hard to do mentally.

We have 2 zones that we are looking at for a potential top to this move. The first one is the 1214 level , and last week we hit a high of 1210.50 or 3.50 points away from the first zone. So right there we have to play it cautious here as the first level has basically been hit. Also we have the 1225-1238 range.

Also the thing to note on this chart is that there has been a very basic pattern repeating over and over which is a breakout then we come back and re-test the breakout level then extended higher. Even though Friday was a big down day compared to the prior ranges of the market all we did was come back to re-test the prior breakout level AND we closed back above the prior breakout level so there is still support in this market.

Eventually the pattern will shift to be down but it is still up at this point.

ALERT: Since we came so close to the 1214 level the pattern could shift soon so we are alert to that and we are trading accordingly meaning; we are not initiating any new swing trades that are long at this time and we are moving are stops up on any longs or exiting them if they have hit the target.

Trading is ODDS in the market and if you are trading without a good outlook you have no odds you are just gambling. The odds are we are nearing a top so we want to know this and not get sucked into the market on a minor buy signal up at a Major resistance. It is you knowing if we are at minor or major levels so you can gain odds to tell you what you should do and with how much money.

Are you day trading every trade with the same amount of share size or contract size? If so you are most likely trading at least half your trades counter trend and if you are trading counter trend you should trade half the size and have different trade rules for those type of trades. Lower odd trade means lower contract size. All our members know the rules and it is best to follow them every single time.

To learn more contact us anytime at trade@eminischool.com

Keep the stops on the longs tight!

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